Despite a number of adverse geopolitical conditions and the rising trend of prices at the global level, National Economic Council (NEC) has set the growth target of 4.8 percent for the current fiscal year.
Government is determined to achieve this target. Ministry of Planning issued a Mid-year Economic Review (July to December 2021-22) in which it has been shown that the agriculture sector will achieve the growth target of 3.5 percent, keeping in view the outstanding performance of Kharif crop and prospects of good wheat crop. The industrial sector was projected to grow by 6.5 percent, keeping in view the growth target of the LSM sector of 6 percent.
The report of the ministry of planning says that the performance of the construction sector is likely to be as per expectations as the government has given a number of incentives to this sector during and after the Covid-19. The probable revival of the manufacturing sector and higher than anticipated growth in imports will push the service sector growth high. Higher financial intermediation and 38 percent growth in the IT sector will boost the Social and Community services sectors.
In the session of the National Economic Council on June 7, 2021, the Annual Plan for 2021-22 was presented against the backdrop of partial slowing down of economic activities due to the Covid-19. Keeping in view the circumstances, careful thought was adopted while setting the growth target of 4.8 percent for the fiscal year 2021-22.
During the first half of this financial year, the performance of industrial and services sectors was quite appreciable and the agriculture sector too performed well with reference to the Kharif crop. Several companies, registered with the Security Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) posted ever high growth in profitability in around ten years during the first three months of the current fiscal year the number of companies, registered with SECP showed an increase of 44 percent during these months.
The concerned report says that the current fiscal year started with positive prospects for building upon the momentum of economic growth achieved during the fiscal year 2020-21. The trend of a hike in commodity prices globally is likely to continue.
International Monetary Fund in its latest January 2022 projection has revised down economic growth for developed countries from 5 percent in 2021 to 3.9 percent in 2022 and for developing and emerging economies of Asia, from 7.2 percent in 2021 to 5.9 percent 2022.